Economics, though inherently complex often manifests itself in simple and understandable ways.  A very fundamental concept that I’m sure we have all come across in our lives is the theory of supply and demand. Traditionally, we have a product or a good, it has its own price and its own market. Of course, external conditions lead to an increase in demand or a decrease in supply, shifting the economy from its state of equilibrium and imposing what we call “dead-weight losses” on the market.  Our sector, one of the buses, coaches, and other heavy-duty vehicles is facing a burgeoning challenge today leading to considerable losses. But unlike in 2020 at the height of the pandemic, this challenge has not arisen due to a lack of supply of components, but quite simply put, a lack of human will.

This challenge is the considerable shortage of drivers of heavy-duty vehicles in our industry. 

The industry has been cognizant of this challenge and the issues arising from it for a few years now, but the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the situation. While trucks and other freight transport vehicles were working overtime, buses and especially coaches were looking for new ways to stay relevant. The pandemic greatly reduced travel and disproportionately affected users and manufacturers of buses & coaches considerably. Among the EU countries studied by the International Road Transport Union (IRU), there were an estimated 12,000 unfilled bus & and coach driver positions in 2021. The demand for drivers increased by 43% between January and September 2022 and this shortage of drivers is expected to significantly worsen in 2026, with a multiplier effect of up to 9 in some countries such as Spain. As the industry continues to return to pre-pandemic normal, the IRU estimates the demand for drivers to continue to rise to 20% in the coming years.

Human will is indeed proving to be a big stumbling block. Traditionally, a huge demand for skilled workers in a sector has seen the youth acquire targeted skills to fill this gap and thereby become part of the labour force. We have seen it in the digital industry, in manufacturing, automotive etc. But for once, despite high levels of unemployment in the youth, there is a significant inability to attract new and younger drivers to the industry. It must be noted that there is a high cost of entry to the sector as a bus & coach driver due to high driver’s license fees. Compounding the issue is the fact that a significant share of the current fleet of bus and coach drivers is close to retirement and a considerable number of the workforce will be retired at the age of 55, leading to nearly 100,000 open driver jobs as early as 2026.

2026 is not 3 years away, it is in fact tomorrow. Action has to be taken urgently at policy level to ensure that the industry can continue to provide its services and is not held “hostage” because of a lack of drivers. With no drivers, the essential services road transport provides will suffer and consequently, everyone who depends on them, i.e. the entire industry will suffer. An ongoing revision of the EU Driving License Directive is going the right way with the opportunity to set the minimum age of professional drivers at 18 rather than the current 21 and facilitate training for these roles to begin from the age of 17. The interest of women in positions as drivers for buses and coaches remains high in most member states and therefore more must be done to accommodate and capitalize this interest. Denmark and Poland have done well to accommodate this aspect with 22% of all bus and coach drivers in these nations comprised of women. 

Operators and their National Associations have come forward to help solve this crisis. Some national associations have recently launched a series of initiatives to address driver shortages, including calling for lowering the minimum age. Various mobility companies have launched academies to recruit and train future drivers with a 4-6-week course, resulting in participants obtaining a license. In addition to mandatory training, companies offer complementary training courses to simulate real-life situations and better equip drivers. Ramon Valdivia, member of the “Presidential Executive” of IRU, had addressed the enormous shortage faced by Spain in tackling driver shortages and, among other measures, proposed hiring drivers from third countries as an immediate solution to cover the labour gap. Professional drivers from Latin America and the MENA region are available but bureaucratic hurdles that include residence permits and driver’s license recognitions are proving to be an issue.

The sector also possesses yet another unique challenge as the IRU through its research has found that higher salaries alone are not enough of an incentive for the youth to take up these positions since the “poor image” of the profession is a driving factor against employment. This requires a larger and more targeted campaign that aims to showcase driving heavy-duty vehicles as a safe, secure, stable, and lucrative career option highlighting the various positive aspects of the work. An aspect often not addressed in the truck driving industry, is one of egos. Yes, you read that correctly. Most youth who engage in truck driving want the “biggest, baddest, and largest” trucks as it is seen to be a symbol of prestige amongst truck drivers to drive the biggest truck. With new drivers often making a bee line for the biggest that transport operators have to offer, there creates an additional problem. Several truck drivers and transport operators that I had spoken to recently, reflect this view and state that it is indeed an unforeseen and unnecessary burden to tackle when finding drivers for the long-haul road transport industry. 

While manufacturers are engaging in support of the trucking industry, additional help from policymakers would go a long way in tackling this issue. There is no immediate mechanical fix to a behavioural problem and policymakers cannot rely on operators alone to find solutions to these new challenges. The EU and Member state governments must recognize the issue and rise to face it at the earliest.

Transport and mobility are moving towards a future at a pace that our future generations may no longer recognize the vehicles that we grew up with. With the need for positive climate reforms to safeguard the environment, legislations’ surrounding emissions, fuel efficiency, chemicals, batteries, fuel sources and others of more mass appeal, they can easily drown out the conversation surrounding this fundamental challenge of driver shortage. It is therefore essential that we continue to do our part in keeping the discussion afloat and supporting various ways and means through which this challenge can be tackled. It will ultimately fall in the hands of the trucking industry and policymakers to create the enabling environment that attracts the youth towards this profession. Buses and coaches remain a fundamental part of society and are beacons of the collective transport sector. We must continue to urge and sometimes remind policymakers in the EU and the member states that the supply and demand equation surrounding driver shortages is stark for all of us to see and we must work together as a community towards ensuring the imminent crisis is tackled successfully. Our one-day deliveries might disappear sooner than we are ready for it.